I still say that he’s leaving, mind you. As an actor he just seems bored with the role. His performance last year was an improvement but he has so little range this season that I wonder why he’d do any more. And while it does sound bold to introduce a new Doctor in 2010 when so many other things are changing, that is how it has been done in the past so it’s not outside the range of possibility.

Also, each season has featured a ‘big event’ and the only one left at this point is for the Doctor to regenerate. The leaked trailer does show Tennant regenerating and unless it’s a ruse that’s proof enough.

Ofcourse we’ll have to wait until it airs to be sure… kinda like the old days when fans anxiously watched Logopolos, unsure of what would happen… or Trial of a Timelord… shocked when nothing did happen!

Steve, I’m intrigued by your theory about the Christmas special, but I’d be more willing to buy into if Tennant weren’t signed on for three more specials after that. It’d be a huge dramatic anti-climax to kill off Ten and then have him stick around for four specials over the course of a year while the new guy twiddles his thumbs on the sidelines.

And let’s not forget the River Song problem. Perhaps we’ll never actually get to see Ten’s future with River on the show, but it would be very out of character for them to expect their faithful viewers to forget about it with no explanation only two episodes later.

B, we were just saying the same thing about Comic Con. We’ve had some great experiences there, but that Saturday last year was…offputting, to put it mildly. While I think Heroes has gotten ridiculous, I have to admit that I wonder occasionally how much of my antipathy can be traced back to waiting for four hours in a hot hallway and bad shoes to see if the Heroes fans would clear out and let us get in for the Battlestar/Futurama/Whedon panels.

{Also, am considering believing our SteveM is Steven Moffat }

I’ve wondered about the “timey-wimey” possibilities and the Christmas special, too. I’m going to cling to the idea that, from the perspective of protecting/growing the overall Doctor Who brand, they wouldn’t want to undercut the new 11th Doctor by hanging out with the 10th after showing a true regeneration. Still, I’ll be happiest when I know for sure.

Susannah, I love it when you’re the voice of reason, which is, you know, all the time. I’d add to your excellent list that Davies appears to love Tennant to little bits and pieces, so I’d assume he’d want to provide at least as good an exit line as (the also wonderful) Christopher Eccleston got. Not to mention my gigantic doubt that the BBC could possibly keep a secret so big. They’re…not very good at that sort of thing. So I’m with you in thinking nothing’s changing. If that’s true, however, I’ll be very interested to see how they get away with reversing/changing something that’s always had major consequences before–what would the price be instead? Interesting.

Hopefully I am very incorrect and I think your other four reasons are pretty sound.

I suppose folks are screaming about the exclusion of Battlestar Galactica, and in previous years I’d have agreed, but I’m not convinced the stuff they broadcast during the eligibility period was that strong, so I’ll save my screaming for when Mary McDonnell is excluded. And if Family Guy can sneak in, where are other broad comedies like It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia? Still…could be worse. And probably will be once the final five (ha!) in each are revealed.